India’s Wild West- Rethinking the Afghanistan Policy

The recently concluded London Conference on Afghanistan has thrown up new challenges for India’s Foreign Policy. The Conference is seen by many as major diplomatic victory for Pakistan. The ‘Great Game’ has actually began now in Afghanistan. And India looks a bit marginalised.

Future developments in Afghanistan will have long term implications for the security of the region.

‘Good’ Taliban and ‘Bad’ Taliban?

   The London Conference saw the first public declaration of the policy of ‘reconciliation and rehabilitation’ with the Taliban. The talk of dealing with the ‘good’ Taliban has been doing round with the American and British security establishment. The main aim of the policy is to identify ‘moderate’ elements among the Taliban and deal with them and accommodate them in the power structure. Till now there is no clarity of what is meant by ‘good’ or ‘moderate’ Taliban.

    This new development clearly reflects the growing frustration and impatience in the Obama Administration’s Afghan Policy. The war effort in Afghanistan is going no where, there is no exit in sight and with the promise of quick end to war, it is obvious that USA will be in search of quick-fix solution.
   This new strategy has greatly increased the importance of Pakistan. USA is banking on Pakistan to provide a gateway to the ‘good’ Taliban and strike a deal with them. All these new developments have created new difficulties for India. But rather than whining about it, India should utilise these changes to reorient its Afghanistan policy.

A Proactive Afghan Policy

   After the fall of Taliban, India has invested heavily in infrastructure building, social and political capacity building in Afghanistan. India enjoys tremendous goodwill among the common Afghans. Some opinion polls rate India as the most popular country among the Afghan population (Popularity data- 70 % for India, 2 % for Pakistan). But India should not remain the country that enjoys high level of good will, but is considered irrelevant in the strategic game.

   India should brace itself for a situation when the Western troops withdraw from Afghanistan. In that scenario, the Hamid Karzai’s government (for he is likely to continue to be in power for the next few years atleast) will have stand up to the pressure of the resurgent Taliban. India should step in actively in this scenario.

   India should now go much beyond building roads and dams. It should increase its military commitment to Afghanistan. India should train Afghan troops (some of it is being already done), provide weapons and play an active role in building a strong Afghan defence force. Everything should be done, apart from sending troops there like the current US presence. Sending troops should be kept as a last option and preferably should not be exercised. India should take steps to neutralise the Pakistan policy of using Afghanistan as a ‘strategic depth’.

    The ‘Great Game’ in Afghanistan is about to enter its most interesting phase, and if India does not act now and not act decisively, it will jeopardise its strategic interests. Rather than depending on USA for a favourable position in Afghanistan, India has to create on its own space. And this would involve some creative thinking and tremendous risk taking on the part of India’s foreign and security policy establishment.