It seems that the Manmohan Singh government will somehow cobble up the numbers for its survival. Reports from Hokkaido sound promising; most members of NSG have expressed their support for the Nuclear Deal. Thus the Round-1 of the ‘Nuclear bout’ goes to the UPA Government. Now after successfully managing the political game, the Government now has to two different but equally important tasks to perform.
The Electoral Front:
The first one is to sell the Nuclear Deal to the Indian electorate. While it is true that no issue of Indian foreign policy has been debated as extensively as this deal has been; but this debate has been mostly elitist in character. This debate now has move out of the elite domain, the media circles; and come into the actual ‘national’ arena. The common man is still unsure how this deal will benefit him-will it help bring down the fuel prices, will it guarantee less power cuts? The Government now has to meet this challenge and it will be interesting to see how the government can reap electoral benefit from the deal. The people would like to know what this Deal brings to them, with so much resources and energy spent on it.
The Global Front:
As mentioned in the previous blog-post, the nuclear deal is not just about India and USA. It is deal between India and the major powers and more importantly, it is a deal aimed at forging a new global nuclear order. The NPT is proving obsolete in managing the new nuclear game. Apart from the N-5 (USA, China, Russia, UK and France), other countries have either crossed or are ready to cross the nuclear threshold. India and Pakistan have already crossed the nuclear line, while countries like Israel, South Africa and Japan are known to posses nuclear capabilities but have not come out in open. And there is the ‘nuclear-problematic’- North Korea, but it appears that it has been reigned in. Iran is another nuclear threshold state but it cannot clubbed along with North Korea, as Iran is a key player to peace in West Asia. This is how the nuclear map of the world pans out.
Over the last few months we have seen the major powers supporting India’s entry into the nuclear order via the Deal. France, UK and Russia all have urged India to conclude the safeguards agreement with the IAEA (a part of the 123 Agreement). There are reports that apart from the political lobbying, India has also used its corporate muscle to get support. India has contacted global energy giants- GE and Areva to push its case with the NSG countries. The energy giants in turn are looking to benefit from the opening of nuclear commerce with India.
The other challenge before India is to convince the disarmament lobby that India is a responsible nuclear power and a valuable addition to the nuclear order. India has already supported the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), and has unilaterally adopted the policy of ‘no- first use’. If Obama wins the race to White House next year, then India will be pressurised to sign NPT and CTBT. But the power equations may not play out as simply as they seem to be. Every country will seek to fulfil its strategic interests in the new global nuclear order. It will be imperative for India to display considerable political will and strategic vision to gain a rightful place in new power play.
The Electoral Front:
The first one is to sell the Nuclear Deal to the Indian electorate. While it is true that no issue of Indian foreign policy has been debated as extensively as this deal has been; but this debate has been mostly elitist in character. This debate now has move out of the elite domain, the media circles; and come into the actual ‘national’ arena. The common man is still unsure how this deal will benefit him-will it help bring down the fuel prices, will it guarantee less power cuts? The Government now has to meet this challenge and it will be interesting to see how the government can reap electoral benefit from the deal. The people would like to know what this Deal brings to them, with so much resources and energy spent on it.
The Global Front:
As mentioned in the previous blog-post, the nuclear deal is not just about India and USA. It is deal between India and the major powers and more importantly, it is a deal aimed at forging a new global nuclear order. The NPT is proving obsolete in managing the new nuclear game. Apart from the N-5 (USA, China, Russia, UK and France), other countries have either crossed or are ready to cross the nuclear threshold. India and Pakistan have already crossed the nuclear line, while countries like Israel, South Africa and Japan are known to posses nuclear capabilities but have not come out in open. And there is the ‘nuclear-problematic’- North Korea, but it appears that it has been reigned in. Iran is another nuclear threshold state but it cannot clubbed along with North Korea, as Iran is a key player to peace in West Asia. This is how the nuclear map of the world pans out.
Over the last few months we have seen the major powers supporting India’s entry into the nuclear order via the Deal. France, UK and Russia all have urged India to conclude the safeguards agreement with the IAEA (a part of the 123 Agreement). There are reports that apart from the political lobbying, India has also used its corporate muscle to get support. India has contacted global energy giants- GE and Areva to push its case with the NSG countries. The energy giants in turn are looking to benefit from the opening of nuclear commerce with India.
The other challenge before India is to convince the disarmament lobby that India is a responsible nuclear power and a valuable addition to the nuclear order. India has already supported the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), and has unilaterally adopted the policy of ‘no- first use’. If Obama wins the race to White House next year, then India will be pressurised to sign NPT and CTBT. But the power equations may not play out as simply as they seem to be. Every country will seek to fulfil its strategic interests in the new global nuclear order. It will be imperative for India to display considerable political will and strategic vision to gain a rightful place in new power play.
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2 comments:
hey, i had no idea that we used our corporate muscle for lobbying for the deal....
it would be nice to have a post on what the deal means for the common man...will help lay people like me understand the fine print of the deal..but then, i guess, that goes beyond the scope of your blog (assuming you would be writing only on India and the World)
good going!
Hi Sangita,
First of all thanks for visiting the blog and commenting on it.
Regarding your comment-In India, foreign policy issues have never dominated elections. Hence it would be interesting to see how the Government turns the Deal into an electoral advantage.
Writing on how the Deal will help common people does not go beyond the scope of the blog, I will surely write about it in the next post.
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